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Theory

My study is an application of the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory developed by Baumgartner and Jones in their Agendas and Instability in American Politics (2009). In their work, they build a theoretical framework that seeks to account for both long periods of apparent policy equilibrium or stability, and what they define as punctuations, or short periods of dramatic policy change. To explain these dynamics, they look at agenda-setting, ideas and understandings (policy image in their terminology), relevant groups and institutions (policy venues), and specific subsystems. They do not conceptualize long periods without substantial policy change as equilibria, but rather they distinguish between stability and equilibrium, and they identify venues and institutions in a subsystem that can provide frameworks promoting stability. The role of ideas, definitions, and understandings in policy agendas is crucial in their analysis of policy change, as new policy images can disrupt continuity and stability in a subsystem, redefining and re-assigning problems, and triggering dynamics of positive feedback and cascade effects, potentially resulting in major policy change in a relatively brief period of time.

They also distinguish between negative feedback and incremental change on the one hand - between punctuations - and positive feedback and non incremental change on the other - during punctuations. Most of the time, in the longer timeframes of stability, threats to the status quo are managed and muffled within existing institutions and subsystems, which leads to minor adjustments without radical change. With new ideas and mutated policy images though, positive feedback loops can lead to greater transformations through the mobilization of bias in new directions. In their words, “institutions play an important role in this analysis, since they make possible a system of periods of relative stability, where the mobilization of bias is structured by a set of institutions that remain stable for some period” punctuated by “dramatic alterations in the mobilization of bias during [...] critical periods” (ibidem, p.12). Their theoretical effort is complemented with a solid empirical research into carefully selected case studies in the American context, where they collect data on media attention, speeches, congressional hearings, and budget allocation to explain stability and change in a number of policy areas including nuclear power, tobacco, pesticides, urban affairs, and child abuse. Though primarily conceptualized for the American policy process, their theoretical approach is broadly applicable to a wide range of contexts. This is due in large part to the universally applicable concept of bounded rationality as the underpinning of their theory. In The Politics of Attention (Jones & Baumgartner, 2005) they address this theme more deeply. In essence, stability and inefficiencies in the decision-making process are due to two sets of variables. First, mostly related to institutions or group-level, formal “rules of the game” and unequal distribution of resources limit the possibility and scope of potential change. Second, individual cognitive and emotional constraints lead to over-attention to a limited number of dimensions, status quo bias, and selection among an unlimited number of potential policy problems. The Punctuated Equilibrium Theory is very useful in uncovering the underlying dynamics of stability and change in EU asylum policy. My research project is structured around the various phases of apparent equilibrium and punctuation in European asylum policy. From the change in policy venue and the beginning of a common policy with the Amsterdam treaty in 1999, negative feedback and incrementalism have dominated the subsystem until the punctuation starting with the 2015 refugee “crisis” and subsequent change in policy image and issue redefinition. I look at budget allocation, public speeches and media coverage to examine the scope and direction of policy change.

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Change in Policy Venue

1999 Amsterdam Treaty - Article 2, 15

Conventional wisdom and some of the literature on globalization, global governance, and regional organizations assume that international and - to a greater extent - supranational institutions take bits of sovereignty away from nation-states. This cession of sovereignty, the assumption posits, implies greater cooperation, increased harmony of interests, and decreased conflict. The EU is thus identified as the emblem of this process. Often firm in its “European exceptionalism” especially in contrast with its partner on the other side of the Atlantic, the EU has expressed its positions in terms of diplomacy, human rights, and international cooperation even during the peak of the so-called “war on terror”. Scholars and political actors have portrayed the EU as a “global norms setter” and a stronger, increasingly unified voice in the international arena calling for more humanitarian principles.

Thus, with the entry into force of the Amsterdam treaty in 1999 and the change of policy venue, expectations were high for a translation of that institutional change into a more humanitarian, human rights-centered implementation. Primary responsibility for asylum policy was going to gradually shift away from Member States and national justice and interior ministries to common institutions, mainly the European Commission and Parliament. According to the previously stated assumption, this shift should have translated into a focus less on national sovereignty, security, and control, and more on cooperation and solidarity (Maurer et al., 2007). Nevertheless, overall stability prevailed and a major shift in asylum policy implementation failed to materialize (ibidem). This was mainly due to two factors. First, institutional change, or change in policy venue, occurred gradually and slowly, and is still underway. The Dublin regulation remained the prevailing principle for assigning responsibility and burden sharing, determining the EU Member State responsible to examine asylum applications seeking protection under the Geneva convention largely as the state of first entry, which left policy implementation mainly in the hands of national actors and agencies. Second, there was a lack of mobilization and entrepreneurship to shift the image and discourse in substantial ways, and selective attention and bounded rationality ensured overall continuity in European asylum policy. Despite the general policy stability, small incremental changes were introduced. For example, at the normative level the principle of solidarity was put forward which permitted the development of common policies and agencies without dramatically disrupting the apparent equilibrium. Specifically, in its most recent formulation in Art. 80 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union - commonly referred to as the treaty of Lisbon - the principle of solidarity establishes that all possible measures should be taken by Member States in order to have an equal share of responsibilities concerning asylum. Solidarity can be conceived as composed of four interrelated dimensions:

  • Normative solidarity and the harmonization of asylum and refugee legislation (for example, with the Directive for Reception Conditions) 
  • Financial solidarity and redistribution of funds to Member States coping with larger number of asylum seekers (for example, with the European Refugee Fund) 
  • Operational or technical solidarity with EU personnel support of Member States implementation of common asylum law (for example, with the European Asylum Support Office) 
  • Physical solidarity and the actual relocation of asylum seekers and refugees, still scarcely implemented to date. 

The practice of policy harmonization has been slow and characterized by both advancements and setbacks led by institutions and issue salience (Givens & Luedtke, 2004). The introduction of the principle of solidarity and its uneasy cohabitation with the Dublin system, together with the push from transnational actors and activists for more inclusive and humanitarian policies, underlied a long period of precarious policy equilibrium.

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The Puzzle

The unexpected and rapid change in EU asylum policy that is currently unfolding can be better understood in the context of the actors in the subsystem, the specificities of the policy venues, the mobilization of bias and agenda setting and the importance of new policy images in issue redefinition. Nevertheless, another concept crucial in the Punctuated Equilibrium analysis is key in understanding the how and why of selective attention, search for solutions, decision-making, and the social construction of crisis from the elites as well as the population. Cognitive and emotional constraints and bounded rationality can help to elucidate the development of “crisis” and shift in policy image, while also explaining the European response to it.
From European “exceptionalism” and “Europe as a global norms setter”, recent developments have allowed European leaders to frame the refugee issue largely in terms of the “war on terror”, borrowing categories of understanding from post 9/11 American leadership. This shift has redesigned the boundaries of deservingness, solidarity, rights, and security. The change in policy image has been captured and sometimes fuelled by newspapers and social media, in which incoming migrants and refugees have been portrayed first as victims, then as burdens or threats. 

Photos: from the top left AP Santi Palacios;Polaris Massimo Sestini; MAK (archiv) 2012, recirculated on social media in 2015

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The Politics of Crisis
2015 as a Critical Juncture

Figure 1 Source: UNHCR, Frontex, Council of the EuropeanUnion 

The critical event that disrupted the long stability in the asylum policy subsystem came with the uptick in asylum applications and inflow of refugees in 2015 following the civil conflict in Syria. In reality, the numbers were much smaller relative to Syria’s neighboring countries. For example, according to UN data (which underestimates the actual number of Syrians by not accounting for irregular entries, especially in neighbouring countries), Syrian asylum applications in the whole EU in the period 2011-2016 were slightly over one million over a total population of over 510 million people. In comparison, Lebanon had a similar number of registered refugees, though its total population is smaller than 6 million, and its economic resources and strength fall greatly behind the highly developed European states. Many analysts have pointed out the potential for integration of refugees into developed economies and societies with ageing populations. The discourse of crisis remains in 2017, despite declining numbers of incoming migrants and refugees, as Figure 1 shows.

Nevertheless, the media and political leaders at the national and EU levels portrayed the issue as an existential crisis. At the grassroots level, people responded and amplified the narrative, shifting public opinion and contributing to the social construction of crisis which went both top-down, from elites and the media, and bottom-up, increased by the public opinion (Cross, 2017). Once on the agenda, a policy problem perceived as a crisis provides a critical juncture, an opportunity for decisions to be taken quickly and often without broad consultation and debate. It gives a sense of urgency and prevailing exigency. As in many other EU perceived existential crises (i.e. the Eurozone crisis), there is a tension between potential setbacks in the EU integration process, with centrifugal forces and a comeback of national politics. Nevertheless, it has been observed how crises actually provide a common platform for stronger common action and more resolute integration. Similarly in this case, it has been argued that the addition of layers of common agencies and policies in response to the refugee crisis had limited effectiveness and efficiency, overburdening some Member States and potentially threatening the Union (Trauner, 2016). Counter to this widespread narrative, I argue that the refugee “crisis” allowed for a shift in policy image and a cascade effect that has been leading to rapid policy change, though in unexpected directions. The EU is indeed strengthening cooperation and integrated, EU level policy designs, implementations, and agencies. Yet, the change is not advancing a more humanitarian, inclusive approach. Rather, it is pushing towards increased coordination and integration in border control and security, with increased intelligence sharing and a general militarization of interventions.

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Policy Image and Positive Feedback

Figure 2 Source: Frontex Governance Documents Reports 07-17

Table 1 Source: Frontex Governance Documents Reports 07-17

The so-called crisis generated a dynamic of positive feedback loop and cascade effect that has been quickly leading to policy change, I argue, towards a more integrated, security-centric asylum policy. This is evident from the change in tone of European political actors’ speeches, the coverage in the media, budget allocation and expenditures, international agreements, and Eurobarometer polls measuring attitudes.

First, in his State of the Union Address, Juncker (2016) touched upon classic themes of European values and exceptionalism, but for the first time clearly linked the refugee issue with the issue of security and border control, as well as counterterrorism. In the media, images and articles before and after 2015 generally switched from the portrayal of Syrians and other asylum seekers as victims of conflict, vulnerable populations deserving protection and rights, towards “illegal immigrants”, potential terrorists, and a threat to EU security and way of life. The Paris attacks on November 13 2015 and the Brussels bombing on March 22 2016 reinforced this narrative. On the external front, the EU-Turkey deal of March 18 2016 allowed Greece to return to Turkey “all new irregular migrants” (the new vocabulary used mainly for Syrian asylum seekers) in exchange for increased resettlements of Syrian refugees residing in Turkey, visa liberalization, and financial support. Needless to specify, the deal disregarded European and international humanitarian law mandating to consider asylum application on an individual, case-by-case basis, just to name one legal controversial point. The fact that a group of 28 states with potentially divergent interests was able to find consensus speaks to the level of concern that leaders have for their own domestic political futures in a context of rising populism (Collett, 2016). Eurobarometers polls have shown more positive attitudes developing towards EU internal migrants from other Member States, in parallel to increasingly negative views towards external migrants (Sojka, 2016). At the same time, extra-communitarian migrants and refugees are perceived as a threat to security and the European way of life, potentially providing “the other” necessary to the construction of a European national imagined community. Budget expenditures indicate a militarization of EU asylum policy, with the creation of a common European Border and Coast Guard (that replaced Frontex in October 2016), more focused on border protection and security than search and rescue or other humanitarian interventions. Figure 2 and Table 1 show a peak in budget allocation to the Frontex-EBCG agency, which was fairly stable since its establishment in 2004, and saw a major change upwards after 2015. In a similar effort, the European External Border Surveillance System (EUROSUR), established in 2008 and strengthened in 2015, uses drones, reconnaissance aircraft, offshore sensors, and satellite remote sensing to increase reaction capability of intelligence and border control authorities to track and combat illegal immigration.

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