apsa (iPosterSessions - an aMuze! Interactive system)

Context

Texas solid Republican State in Presidential Election since 1980
Solidly Republican since 2002
Changing demographics – will this lead to political party change in Texas?
Texas one of a few states to have an improvement by Democratic candidate in presidential election
What is the evidence of party change in Texas?
National implications if Texas becomes competitive (Florida) or realigns (California)

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State Presidential Election Comparisons

California had been a reliable GOP state and Texas a reliable Democratic state in presidential elections. Florida also has large Latino population and has been competitive

In 2016 Hillary Clinton had the best showing for a Democratic candidate in TX since 1996.

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Changing Demographics in Texas

The non-Hispanic white (white) population is not a pyramid shape. Most whites, adjusting for the age of the date, are in their mid 50s and older. The other demographic groups make up a majority of the younger population.

Looking specifically at Hispanics (Census term), whites outnumber Hispanics among those in their 50s and 60s (and older), whereas Hispanics greatly outnumber whites among children.

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Party Identification and Generational Replacement

Do younger Texans have different party identifications than older Texans? Does it vary by race/ethnicity? Texas data from 2017 indicates there is a generation difference for party identification for whites.

However, perhaps younger whites are simply more Democratic when they are young, and then they will become Republican as they get older. Looking at survey data from 1995, 2004, and 2008 can help address this question.

in 1995, younger whites were the most Republican generation (cohort) among whites and older whites were the least Republican -- this is the opposite of the 2015 findings.

By 2004 and 2008, all generations (cohorts) of whites are Republican.

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Cohort Analysis & Logistic Regressions

Using a method adapted from Abramowitz and Saunders to analyze age cohorts, the net party identification of different age cohorts are tracked over time and net change can be calculated.

^{Note: Net party identification = % of Democratic identifiers/leaners minus the % of Republican identifiers/leaners}

Based on the findings for whites, those 60 and up went from being the least Republican

cohort to the most Republican cohort. Generational change can explain this. Those in their 60s and older during 1995 were socialized as Democrats while they were young as part of the New Deal Coalition and remained Democrats. Younger white generations were socialized in a post New Deal Coalition environment and identified as Republicans. As the older Democratic whites left the electorate, they were replaced by Republican cohorts (generations).

Logistic regression finds that age no longer has a negative effect on Republican identification. Conservatism and white have the largest effects. Education went from having a positive effect on Republicanism, to no effect.

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Implications

Texas electorate changing
Republican base is older whites
As older generations (cohorts) of whites leave the electorate, being replaced by 1) Smaller cohort of whites who are less Republican & 2) Young people of color (largest group is Mexican American) who are more Democratic than Republican
Generational cohort replacement is the key to party change in Texas, it is not simply demographics
Texas likely to transition as older white Republicans are replaced in the electorate by a more diverse and less Republican cohort

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